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"content": "Thanks to [the Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/nov/01/mastodon-twitter-elon-musk-takeover), we have another point of comparison: the technical costs of running mstdn.social at \"83,000 users ... costs โฌ358 a month\"."
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"plainTextBody": "Thanks to [the Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/nov/01/mastodon-twitter-elon-musk-takeover), we have another point of comparison: the technical costs of running mstdn.social at \"83,000 users ... costs โฌ358 a month\".",
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"headline": "Some computations regarding sustainability ",
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"content": "According to the latest numbers provided by the project, Cohost needs 50,000 active users to survive. I don't believe this is likely to happen."
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"content": "At the end of August, they had $136,224 in the bank, and expected to have about $16,000 left over at the end of the year. So, their expenses are at least $120,224 / 4 months = $30,056 a month."
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"content": "In addition, we know that for 3,837 active users, there were 497 Cohost Plus subscribers, or about 7.69 active users per subscriber."
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"content": "Given that they need, at minimum, $30,000 per month to break even, and Cohost Plus is $5/mo (or $4.17/mo for a yearly sub, but we'll be charitable), that means they need 6,000 Cohost Plus subscribers just to break even."
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"content": "At 7.96 MAU/sub, that's 46,140 MAU, with the same level of enthusiasm as the initial cohort to break even with the current expenses. Factoring in yearly subs, increased expenses from larger hosting bills, and so forth, I'd say 50,000 MAU is a conservative estimate."
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"content": "We'll see what growth looks like in the October transparency post, but that seems very, very unlikely to me. It's an order of magnitude increase in users in 3 months."
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"content": "it's worth noting that, based on last month's numbers, Cohost costs many times as much to run as similarly sized Mastodon instances; fosstodon, for instance, costs about $300/mo to run with a similar MAU count."
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"content": "we know that staff are paid $7,274/mo from [this post](https://cohost.org/staff/post/76013-july-2022-financial). with three of them, that's 21,702/mo. So, that's $8,298 a month for non-salary costs; even assuming their healthcare is very expensive, and some goes to taxes, that's many thousands of dollars in infrastructure."
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"content": "and like, that's Mastodon, the most bloated, poorly engineered, Ruby Rails and Redis monstrosity of a trashfire software project. Pleroma, GoToSocial, and so forth cost far less, and in practice it's even less for a lot of folks because lots of instances share image infrastructure (and fosstodon does not, to my knowledge)."
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"plainTextBody": "it's worth noting that, based on last month's numbers, Cohost costs many times as much to run as similarly sized Mastodon instances; fosstodon, for instance, costs about $300/mo to run with a similar MAU count.\n\nwe know that staff are paid $7,274/mo from [this post](https://cohost.org/staff/post/76013-july-2022-financial). with three of them, that's 21,702/mo. So, that's $8,298 a month for non-salary costs; even assuming their healthcare is very expensive, and some goes to taxes, that's many thousands of dollars in infrastructure.\n\nand like, that's Mastodon, the most bloated, poorly engineered, Ruby Rails and Redis monstrosity of a trashfire software project. Pleroma, GoToSocial, and so forth cost far less, and in practice it's even less for a lot of folks because lots of instances share image infrastructure (and fosstodon does not, to my knowledge).",
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"postId": 169186,
"headline": "October Update",
"publishedAt": "2022-11-01T16:31:30.885Z",
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"content": "Thanks to [this post](https://cohost.org/staff/post/168924-october-2022-financi), we can roll again, so let's go! The basic conclusion: Cohost as it stands is too expensive to break even at any scale."
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"content": "October ended with $85,000 in the bank, with the estimation of $22,500 remaining at the end of the year; that's an expected loss of $31,250 per month for the next two months. With $3,535 MRR, that's about **$34,785 in expenses** each month (or **$13,083 in non-salary expenses**.)"
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"content": "The active conversion rate is 9.06 percent, or about 11 MAU/sub; at $5/mo/sub (which, remember, is generous), that's **$0.45 expected MRR per MAU**. That is to say, at the current level of enthusiasm (which, remember, is falling), we'd expect each new user to bring in about 45 cents per month."
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"content": "We can also compute approximately how much each user costs, because we know the deltas. The monthly non-salary operational expenses went up by $4,785. Since it's unlikely that other non-salary costs went up much (healthcare, accounting, and so forth), let's assume that $4000 of that is infrastructure costs (a conservative estimate, in my opinion, but probably the shakiest one I've made so far). With a delta in active users of about 5,000 (again, probably conservative, but this month's figures aren't exact), **users cost about $0.35/MAU** (that is, 45 cents of expected income versus 80 cents of additional opex)."
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"content": "In other words, **new users currently cost Cohost more money than they are expected to generate.**"
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"content": "Given the recomputed expenses, we can say that to break even, Cohost would need about 77,300 users to break even, assuming continue to subscribe to Cohost Plus at the same rate as today (which they will not) and that those users impose no additional cost (which they clearly do). However, with the current stats, actually getting to 77.3k users would **cost Cohost an additional $27,055**. With the current cost/MAU, Cohost cannot be made sustainable."
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"content": "If that's the case, why is the end-of-year estimate more optimistic this time? Well, I think it's because a lot of people are subscribing to 12-month prepaid Cohost Plus plans, which bring in $50 all at once rather than $5 per month. That's great for cash in hand, and really good for extending runway, but it actually reduces the effective income per MAU."
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"content": "I'm sure @staff are aware of this, and have called out that they are working on improving performance, which is likely to reduce cost/MAU; it's not a cause for panic, but it's worth noting. Unless Cohost Plus subscribership ~doubles, or costs ~halve, or some combination of the two, Cohost will not be profitable when their runway runs out. Of course, funding will help with this, and @staff are working on that too."
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"plainTextBody": "Thanks to [this post](https://cohost.org/staff/post/168924-october-2022-financi), we can roll again, so let's go! The basic conclusion: Cohost as it stands is too expensive to break even at any scale.\n\nOctober ended with $85,000 in the bank, with the estimation of $22,500 remaining at the end of the year; that's an expected loss of $31,250 per month for the next two months. With $3,535 MRR, that's about **$34,785 in expenses** each month (or **$13,083 in non-salary expenses**.)\n\nThe active conversion rate is 9.06 percent, or about 11 MAU/sub; at $5/mo/sub (which, remember, is generous), that's **$0.45 expected MRR per MAU**. That is to say, at the current level of enthusiasm (which, remember, is falling), we'd expect each new user to bring in about 45 cents per month.\n\nWe can also compute approximately how much each user costs, because we know the deltas. The monthly non-salary operational expenses went up by $4,785. Since it's unlikely that other non-salary costs went up much (healthcare, accounting, and so forth), let's assume that $4000 of that is infrastructure costs (a conservative estimate, in my opinion, but probably the shakiest one I've made so far). With a delta in active users of about 5,000 (again, probably conservative, but this month's figures aren't exact), **users cost about $0.35/MAU** (that is, 45 cents of expected income versus 80 cents of additional opex).\n\nIn other words, **new users currently cost Cohost more money than they are expected to generate.**\n\nGiven the recomputed expenses, we can say that to break even, Cohost would need about 77,300 users to break even, assuming continue to subscribe to Cohost Plus at the same rate as today (which they will not) and that those users impose no additional cost (which they clearly do). However, with the current stats, actually getting to 77.3k users would **cost Cohost an additional $27,055**. With the current cost/MAU, Cohost cannot be made sustainable.\n\nIf that's the case, why is the end-of-year estimate more optimistic this time? Well, I think it's because a lot of people are subscribing to 12-month prepaid Cohost Plus plans, which bring in $50 all at once rather than $5 per month. That's great for cash in hand, and really good for extending runway, but it actually reduces the effective income per MAU.\n\nI'm sure @staff are aware of this, and have called out that they are working on improving performance, which is likely to reduce cost/MAU; it's not a cause for panic, but it's worth noting. Unless Cohost Plus subscribership ~doubles, or costs ~halve, or some combination of the two, Cohost will not be profitable when their runway runs out. Of course, funding will help with this, and @staff are working on that too.",
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"content": "by the way, this is a standing offer on other platforms but i'll make it clear here too: i do a lot of Rust programming, both professionally and for fun. if you are learning Rust, please do not hesitate to email or message me (nora@nora.codes, on email, matrix, and xmpp) and ask any questions or request a code review. or just tag me on fedi (or here or twitter but I may not see it)"
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"headline": "why Cohost isn't open source",
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"content": "so i've been getting this kind of weird feeling of simultaneous interest and resistance from @staff about open-source aspects of Cohost, such as @Gabriella439's proposal of allowing users to pay to have PRs considered by ASSC, my own occasional mentions of wanting to contribute front-end and back-end fixes, and so forth. I wasn't worried about it much because, obviously, it's up to them, but i was recently made aware that it in fact is *not* up to them; according to @vogon on twitter ([link](https://twitter.com/vogon/status/1585722087033147392), [archive link](https://web.archive.org/web/20221102155740/https://twitter.com/vogon/status/1585722087033147392)):"
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"content": "> the IP rights to our software are the security for our startup capital -- if we default on the loan, the person who gave us the money gets the software as a consolation prize"
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"content": "and I think that's worth making more widely known, because I think it's likely to influence some of what that funder (this being, presumably, the anonymous funder of October transparency post fame) wants from the project. it's definitely far better than VC, which ASSC has said they'll never take, but it's not nothing."
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"plainTextBody": "so i've been getting this kind of weird feeling of simultaneous interest and resistance from @staff about open-source aspects of Cohost, such as @Gabriella439's proposal of allowing users to pay to have PRs considered by ASSC, my own occasional mentions of wanting to contribute front-end and back-end fixes, and so forth. I wasn't worried about it much because, obviously, it's up to them, but i was recently made aware that it in fact is *not* up to them; according to @vogon on twitter ([link](https://twitter.com/vogon/status/1585722087033147392), [archive link](https://web.archive.org/web/20221102155740/https://twitter.com/vogon/status/1585722087033147392)):\n\n> the IP rights to our software are the security for our startup capital -- if we default on the loan, the person who gave us the money gets the software as a consolation prize\n\nand I think that's worth making more widely known, because I think it's likely to influence some of what that funder (this being, presumably, the anonymous funder of October transparency post fame) wants from the project. it's definitely far better than VC, which ASSC has said they'll never take, but it's not nothing.",
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"postId": 173675,
"headline": "speaking of Tumblr...",
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"content": "... if i recall correctly, they had to do this in segments there."
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"content": "cohost is already developing a culture around assc and site updates that's very similar to early 2010s Tumblr's relationship to David Karp and I think it's very interesting"
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"plainTextBody": "cohost is already developing a culture around assc and site updates that's very similar to early 2010s Tumblr's relationship to David Karp and I think it's very interesting",
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"content": "this was an enormous problem on Tumblr as well, especially in small sub-communities like the therian and plural spaces there in the early 2010s. ultimately, it's just the top-reply vs bottom-reply debate from USENET and AOL all over again."
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"content": "the answer, of course, is to display posts differently in different contexts, and make it a client-side configuration option, but that's a lot of work. cohost has an advantage here as a primarily CSR app that can just do whatever it wants with the blobs of JSON it slorps down, so maybe we will actually see this. (sure would love to be able to implement something like that myself!)"
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{
"postId": 170482,
"headline": "Get the source code of any post!",
"publishedAt": "2022-11-01T19:57:14.294Z",
"filename": "170482-get-the-source-code",
"transparentShareOfPostId": null,
"state": 1,
"numComments": 7,
"numSharedComments": 0,
"cws": [],
"tags": [
"cohost meta",
"web development",
"rust",
"markdown",
"source code"
],
"blocks": [
{
"type": "markdown",
"markdown": {
"content": "[Corobel](https://corobel.nora.codes) can now retrieve the plain source of any post - whatever was entered to create the post, after sanitization of illegal tags."
}
},
{
"type": "markdown",
"markdown": {
"content": "**UPDATE:** Corobel now has a bookmarklet! No more arcane mutterings, if you click the link above and drag the Corobel: Extract Markdown link to your bookmarks toolbar, you can simply click that bookmark while on any Cohost post's individual post page to get its source code. (I'd put it here, but it's a JavaScript link and Cohost eats it.)"
}
},
{
"type": "markdown",
"markdown": {
"content": "Former arcane mutterings:
\nIn order to do this, take the post's link, like `https://cohost.org/noracodes/post/169186-october-update`. Get the project (here `noracodes`) and post ID (here `169186`) and go to `https://corobel.nora.codes/Former arcane mutterings:
\nIn order to do this, take the post's link, like `https://cohost.org/noracodes/post/169186-october-update`. Get the project (here `noracodes`) and post ID (here `169186`) and go to `https://corobel.nora.codes/Former arcane mutterings:
\nIn order to do this, take the post's link, like `https://cohost.org/noracodes/post/169186-october-update`. Get the project (here `noracodes`) and post ID (here `169186`) and go to `https://corobel.nora.codes/Former arcane mutterings:
\nIn order to do this, take the post's link, like `https://cohost.org/noracodes/post/169186-october-update`. Get the project (here `noracodes`) and post ID (here `169186`) and go to `https://corobel.nora.codes/
g*d I l*ve the new season of sh*r* but I can't st*nd h*w much the f*nd*m is tearing the cr**t*rs apart over m*nor sh*t, just like in the st*v*n *n*v*rs* f*nd*m
\ng*d I l*ve the new season of sh*r* but I can't st*nd h*w much the f*nd*m is tearing the cr**t*rs apart over m*nor sh*t, just like in the st*v*n *n*v*rs* f*nd*m
\n