2400 lines
145 KiB
JSON
2400 lines
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"content": "Thanks to [the Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/nov/01/mastodon-twitter-elon-musk-takeover), we have another point of comparison: the technical costs of running mstdn.social at \"83,000 users ... costs €358 a month\"."
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"headline": "Some computations regarding sustainability ",
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"content": "According to the latest numbers provided by the project, Cohost needs 50,000 active users to survive. I don't believe this is likely to happen."
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"content": "At the end of August, they had $136,224 in the bank, and expected to have about $16,000 left over at the end of the year. So, their expenses are at least $120,224 / 4 months = $30,056 a month."
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"content": "In addition, we know that for 3,837 active users, there were 497 Cohost Plus subscribers, or about 7.69 active users per subscriber."
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"content": "Given that they need, at minimum, $30,000 per month to break even, and Cohost Plus is $5/mo (or $4.17/mo for a yearly sub, but we'll be charitable), that means they need 6,000 Cohost Plus subscribers just to break even."
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"content": "At 7.96 MAU/sub, that's 46,140 MAU, with the same level of enthusiasm as the initial cohort to break even with the current expenses. Factoring in yearly subs, increased expenses from larger hosting bills, and so forth, I'd say 50,000 MAU is a conservative estimate."
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"content": "We'll see what growth looks like in the October transparency post, but that seems very, very unlikely to me. It's an order of magnitude increase in users in 3 months."
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"content": "it's worth noting that, based on last month's numbers, Cohost costs many times as much to run as similarly sized Mastodon instances; fosstodon, for instance, costs about $300/mo to run with a similar MAU count."
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"content": "we know that staff are paid $7,274/mo from [this post](https://cohost.org/staff/post/76013-july-2022-financial). with three of them, that's 21,702/mo. So, that's $8,298 a month for non-salary costs; even assuming their healthcare is very expensive, and some goes to taxes, that's many thousands of dollars in infrastructure."
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"content": "and like, that's Mastodon, the most bloated, poorly engineered, Ruby Rails and Redis monstrosity of a trashfire software project. Pleroma, GoToSocial, and so forth cost far less, and in practice it's even less for a lot of folks because lots of instances share image infrastructure (and fosstodon does not, to my knowledge)."
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"plainTextBody": "it's worth noting that, based on last month's numbers, Cohost costs many times as much to run as similarly sized Mastodon instances; fosstodon, for instance, costs about $300/mo to run with a similar MAU count.\n\nwe know that staff are paid $7,274/mo from [this post](https://cohost.org/staff/post/76013-july-2022-financial). with three of them, that's 21,702/mo. So, that's $8,298 a month for non-salary costs; even assuming their healthcare is very expensive, and some goes to taxes, that's many thousands of dollars in infrastructure.\n\nand like, that's Mastodon, the most bloated, poorly engineered, Ruby Rails and Redis monstrosity of a trashfire software project. Pleroma, GoToSocial, and so forth cost far less, and in practice it's even less for a lot of folks because lots of instances share image infrastructure (and fosstodon does not, to my knowledge).",
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"headline": "October Update",
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"content": "Thanks to [this post](https://cohost.org/staff/post/168924-october-2022-financi), we can roll again, so let's go! The basic conclusion: Cohost as it stands is too expensive to break even at any scale."
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"content": "October ended with $85,000 in the bank, with the estimation of $22,500 remaining at the end of the year; that's an expected loss of $31,250 per month for the next two months. With $3,535 MRR, that's about **$34,785 in expenses** each month (or **$13,083 in non-salary expenses**.)"
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"content": "The active conversion rate is 9.06 percent, or about 11 MAU/sub; at $5/mo/sub (which, remember, is generous), that's **$0.45 expected MRR per MAU**. That is to say, at the current level of enthusiasm (which, remember, is falling), we'd expect each new user to bring in about 45 cents per month."
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"content": "We can also compute approximately how much each user costs, because we know the deltas. The monthly non-salary operational expenses went up by $4,785. Since it's unlikely that other non-salary costs went up much (healthcare, accounting, and so forth), let's assume that $4000 of that is infrastructure costs (a conservative estimate, in my opinion, but probably the shakiest one I've made so far). With a delta in active users of about 5,000 (again, probably conservative, but this month's figures aren't exact), **users cost about $0.35/MAU** (that is, 45 cents of expected income versus 80 cents of additional opex)."
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"content": "In other words, **new users currently cost Cohost more money than they are expected to generate.**"
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"content": "Given the recomputed expenses, we can say that to break even, Cohost would need about 77,300 users to break even, assuming continue to subscribe to Cohost Plus at the same rate as today (which they will not) and that those users impose no additional cost (which they clearly do). However, with the current stats, actually getting to 77.3k users would **cost Cohost an additional $27,055**. With the current cost/MAU, Cohost cannot be made sustainable."
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"content": "If that's the case, why is the end-of-year estimate more optimistic this time? Well, I think it's because a lot of people are subscribing to 12-month prepaid Cohost Plus plans, which bring in $50 all at once rather than $5 per month. That's great for cash in hand, and really good for extending runway, but it actually reduces the effective income per MAU."
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"content": "I'm sure @staff are aware of this, and have called out that they are working on improving performance, which is likely to reduce cost/MAU; it's not a cause for panic, but it's worth noting. Unless Cohost Plus subscribership ~doubles, or costs ~halve, or some combination of the two, Cohost will not be profitable when their runway runs out. Of course, funding will help with this, and @staff are working on that too."
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"plainTextBody": "Thanks to [this post](https://cohost.org/staff/post/168924-october-2022-financi), we can roll again, so let's go! The basic conclusion: Cohost as it stands is too expensive to break even at any scale.\n\nOctober ended with $85,000 in the bank, with the estimation of $22,500 remaining at the end of the year; that's an expected loss of $31,250 per month for the next two months. With $3,535 MRR, that's about **$34,785 in expenses** each month (or **$13,083 in non-salary expenses**.)\n\nThe active conversion rate is 9.06 percent, or about 11 MAU/sub; at $5/mo/sub (which, remember, is generous), that's **$0.45 expected MRR per MAU**. That is to say, at the current level of enthusiasm (which, remember, is falling), we'd expect each new user to bring in about 45 cents per month.\n\nWe can also compute approximately how much each user costs, because we know the deltas. The monthly non-salary operational expenses went up by $4,785. Since it's unlikely that other non-salary costs went up much (healthcare, accounting, and so forth), let's assume that $4000 of that is infrastructure costs (a conservative estimate, in my opinion, but probably the shakiest one I've made so far). With a delta in active users of about 5,000 (again, probably conservative, but this month's figures aren't exact), **users cost about $0.35/MAU** (that is, 45 cents of expected income versus 80 cents of additional opex).\n\nIn other words, **new users currently cost Cohost more money than they are expected to generate.**\n\nGiven the recomputed expenses, we can say that to break even, Cohost would need about 77,300 users to break even, assuming continue to subscribe to Cohost Plus at the same rate as today (which they will not) and that those users impose no additional cost (which they clearly do). However, with the current stats, actually getting to 77.3k users would **cost Cohost an additional $27,055**. With the current cost/MAU, Cohost cannot be made sustainable.\n\nIf that's the case, why is the end-of-year estimate more optimistic this time? Well, I think it's because a lot of people are subscribing to 12-month prepaid Cohost Plus plans, which bring in $50 all at once rather than $5 per month. That's great for cash in hand, and really good for extending runway, but it actually reduces the effective income per MAU.\n\nI'm sure @staff are aware of this, and have called out that they are working on improving performance, which is likely to reduce cost/MAU; it's not a cause for panic, but it's worth noting. Unless Cohost Plus subscribership ~doubles, or costs ~halve, or some combination of the two, Cohost will not be profitable when their runway runs out. Of course, funding will help with this, and @staff are working on that too.",
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"content": "cohost is already developing a culture around assc and site updates that's very similar to early 2010s Tumblr's relationship to David Karp and I think it's very interesting"
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||
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|
||
}
|
||
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|
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|
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|
||
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||
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
||
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|
||
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|
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|
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|
||
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|
||
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|
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|
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"content": "Thanks to [this post](https://cohost.org/staff/post/168924-october-2022-financi), we can roll again, so let's go! The basic conclusion: Cohost as it stands is too expensive to break even at any scale."
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"content": "October ended with $85,000 in the bank, with the estimation of $22,500 remaining at the end of the year; that's an expected loss of $31,250 per month for the next two months. With $3,535 MRR, that's about **$34,785 in expenses** each month (or **$13,083 in non-salary expenses**.)"
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"content": "The active conversion rate is 9.06 percent, or about 11 MAU/sub; at $5/mo/sub (which, remember, is generous), that's **$0.45 expected MRR per MAU**. That is to say, at the current level of enthusiasm (which, remember, is falling), we'd expect each new user to bring in about 45 cents per month."
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"content": "We can also compute approximately how much each user costs, because we know the deltas. The monthly non-salary operational expenses went up by $4,785. Since it's unlikely that other non-salary costs went up much (healthcare, accounting, and so forth), let's assume that $4000 of that is infrastructure costs (a conservative estimate, in my opinion, but probably the shakiest one I've made so far). With a delta in active users of about 5,000 (again, probably conservative, but this month's figures aren't exact), **users cost about $0.35/MAU** (that is, 45 cents of expected income versus 80 cents of additional opex)."
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"content": "In other words, **new users currently cost Cohost more money than they are expected to generate.**"
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"content": "Given the recomputed expenses, we can say that to break even, Cohost would need about 77,300 users to break even, assuming continue to subscribe to Cohost Plus at the same rate as today (which they will not) and that those users impose no additional cost (which they clearly do). However, with the current stats, actually getting to 77.3k users would **cost Cohost an additional $27,055**. With the current cost/MAU, Cohost cannot be made sustainable."
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"content": "If that's the case, why is the end-of-year estimate more optimistic this time? Well, I think it's because a lot of people are subscribing to 12-month prepaid Cohost Plus plans, which bring in $50 all at once rather than $5 per month. That's great for cash in hand, and really good for extending runway, but it actually reduces the effective income per MAU."
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"content": "I'm sure @staff are aware of this, and have called out that they are working on improving performance, which is likely to reduce cost/MAU; it's not a cause for panic, but it's worth noting. Unless Cohost Plus subscribership ~doubles, or costs ~halve, or some combination of the two, Cohost will not be profitable when their runway runs out. Of course, funding will help with this, and @staff are working on that too."
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"content": "At the end of August, they had $136,224 in the bank, and expected to have about $16,000 left over at the end of the year. So, their expenses are at least $120,224 / 4 months = $30,056 a month."
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"content": "Given that they need, at minimum, $30,000 per month to break even, and Cohost Plus is $5/mo (or $4.17/mo for a yearly sub, but we'll be charitable), that means they need 6,000 Cohost Plus subscribers just to break even."
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"content": "At 7.96 MAU/sub, that's 46,140 MAU, with the same level of enthusiasm as the initial cohort to break even with the current expenses. Factoring in yearly subs, increased expenses from larger hosting bills, and so forth, I'd say 50,000 MAU is a conservative estimate."
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"content": "We'll see what growth looks like in the October transparency post, but that seems very, very unlikely to me. It's an order of magnitude increase in users in 3 months."
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"content": "we know that staff are paid $7,274/mo from [this post](https://cohost.org/staff/post/76013-july-2022-financial). with three of them, that's 21,702/mo. So, that's $8,298 a month for non-salary costs; even assuming their healthcare is very expensive, and some goes to taxes, that's many thousands of dollars in infrastructure."
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"content": "and like, that's Mastodon, the most bloated, poorly engineered, Ruby Rails and Redis monstrosity of a trashfire software project. Pleroma, GoToSocial, and so forth cost far less, and in practice it's even less for a lot of folks because lots of instances share image infrastructure (and fosstodon does not, to my knowledge)."
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|
||
"content": "For all your desiloing needs, please enjoy my Cohost to RSS feed generator at https://corobel.nora.codes"
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"type": "markdown",
|
||
"markdown": {
|
||
"content": "Turn any Cohost project into an RSS feed. Here's staff: https://corobel.nora.codes/staff/feed.rss"
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||
}
|
||
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|
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|
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"content": "~~In order to not hammer the shit out of the Cohost API, it uses relative link pagination, which not all feed readers support, but you even without it you get the latest 20 posts, and most readers will archive posts when they move off the page.~~ Edit: I disabled pagination because it's actually not that slow to just fetch everything. It also supports content warnings and post tags."
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}
|
||
},
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|
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||
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|
||
"content": "You can also find the code online at [git.nora.codes](https://git.nora.codes/nora/corobel). Feel free to reply or email me (nora@nora.codes) with bug reports or improvements you think I could make!"
|
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|
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"content": "Honestly, I never considered signing up for Pillowfort because nobody I know did, and then they had [significant security issues](https://www.vice.com/en/article/k7akqv/buzzy-new-social-media-site-pillowfort-is-riddled-with-basic-bugs). Assuming that's been fixed, I'd be willing to give it a try, but I'd be much more interested if it were open source!"
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||
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||
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|
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|
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"content": "There's been discussion in the comments of recent staff posts on Pillowfort about how the site needs to appeal to the users who left the site, and those who never signed up in the first place. Which I thought was an interesting topic!"
|
||
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|
||
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|
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|
||
"type": "markdown",
|
||
"markdown": {
|
||
"content": "Are there aspects of Cohost you like that Pillowfort doesn't have? Issues Pillowfort has had that have turned you away? Or do you perhaps use both Cohost and Pillowfort for your fannish needs, whether that be sharing content or browsing?"
|
||
}
|
||
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|
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||
"content": "If you know of any discussions about this, whether here on Cohost or elsewhere, I would be really interested to see them!"
|
||
}
|
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"plainTextBody": "There's been discussion in the comments of recent staff posts on Pillowfort about how the site needs to appeal to the users who left the site, and those who never signed up in the first place. Which I thought was an interesting topic!\n\nAre there aspects of Cohost you like that Pillowfort doesn't have? Issues Pillowfort has had that have turned you away? Or do you perhaps use both Cohost and Pillowfort for your fannish needs, whether that be sharing content or browsing?\n\nIf you know of any discussions about this, whether here on Cohost or elsewhere, I would be really interested to see them!",
|
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|
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|
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|
||
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|
||
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|
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||
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|
||
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|
||
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
||
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"content": "we are all but guaranteed some not-insignificant Discourse on this point; while I think you're right, and it's the same tradeoff Mastodon and even Tumblr made, it's a discoverability issue for some. also, because Cohost is centralized, we will likely see external archiving services with full text search at some point; people like doing that."
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